The Chirac Doctrine

[CutblockTX@aol.com]

Here's an interesting article on what Jacques Chirac's plan for dealing with 
Iraq is shaping up to me.  This is extremely relevant to our sim game as 
Chirac is one of the crucial members of the UN Security Council, which gives 
him veto power over granting the US the blessing to go to war with Iraq.

Enjoy,
Robert Holland

 
 
 
 
 
November 4, 2002, 9:00 a.m. 
The Chirac Doctrine
France’s Iraq-war plan.

By Amir Taheri
 
 

rance's President Jacques Chirac is "determined" to prevent the United States 
from removing the Iraqi regime of President Saddam Hussein by force.

Sources in Paris insist that Chirac has decided to use the French veto in the 
United Nations Security Council, if necessary, to derail American plans for 
an attack on Iraq.

"If you ask me what will happen next I can tell you there will be no war," a 
senior French official told me on condition of anonymity. "President Chirac 
has taken personal charge of the Iraq dossier with the clear aim of 
preventing an unnecessary war that could destabilize the whole of the Middle 
East."

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin says the status quo in Iraq is 
"unsustainable." But he insists that the use of force is not the only means 
of changing it.

On the basis of interviews with various sources in Paris, it looks as if the 
French leader's plan is devised in two phases. 

The first phase consists of efforts to prevent the passage of a Security 
Council resolution that would give the U.S. a legal basis for removing Saddam 
Hussein from power.

Chirac wants the U.N. weapons' inspectors to return to Iraq and operate 
within a timeframe determined by themselves, not Washington. 

Hans Blix, the Swedish diplomat who heads the team of inspectors says he may 
need up to 18 months before he could report to the Security Council.

Assuming that the inspectors are in Iraq by Christmas, the Blix timetable 
would take us into the summer of 2004. Even if he reports at that time that 
the Iraqis have not cooperated with his team, the issue would have to be 
raised by the Security Council so that a new resolution, authorizing the use 
of force, is discussed. 

By then we would be right in the middle of the American presidential election.

French official sources believe that if there is no Iraq war within the next 
10-16 weeks there will be none for another two years, at least. 

If President George W Bush is reelected in 2004 he may well have less of an 
incentive to act against Saddam Hussein. If, on the other hand, he loses to a 
Democrat candidate, the new U.S. president might not want to adopt one of the 
Republicans' most controversial policies immediately.

All but one of the likely Democratic presidential candidates have already 
said they are opposed to war without the full backing of the Security Council.

The second phase of Chirac's strategy consists of efforts inside Iraq to 
persuade Saddam to change certain aspects of his domestic and foreign 
policies.

"The Americans want regime change in Baghdad," says a senior French source. 
"But should this mean a change of personnel only? What if we could bring 
about significant policy changes without installing a totally new leadership 
that might or might not be acceptable to the Iraqi people?"

The source adds: "Chirac is convinced that he can persuade Saddam to talk the 
right talk and walk the right walk."

Chirac is the only Western leader to have a personal knowledge of the Iraqi 
president. 

The two first met in 1975, when Chirac was prime minister for the first time, 
and almost instantly warmed up to one another. 

Chirac became the first French leader to make an official visit to Baghdad 
that year, and to deepen his ties with Saddam who was vice president and 
"strongman" at the time.

Saddam showed his appreciation by approving a deal under which Iraq committed 
to granting French oil companies a number of privileges plus a 23 percent 
share of Iraqi oil.

Chirac repaid the favor by approving the construction of Iraq's first 
nuclear-power center, Tammuz, near Baghdad. The project, which subsequently 
emerged as the core of Iraq's efforts to develop nuclear weapons, was 
destroyed in an Israeli air raid in September 1980.

In 1976 Saddam paid an official visit to France, his first and last to any 
Western country, and was received by Chirac as a head of state. 

It was not until 1991 that Chirac broke contacts with Saddam as a result of 
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.

The friendship forged between the two men proved profitable for both sides. 
France sold an estimated $20 billion worth of weapons, including Mirage 
fighters, to Iraq, and emerged as Iraq's biggest trading partner, in a 
wide-range of civilian goods and services, after Russia. In exchange, Iraq 
focused on France as its largest oil market in Europe.

During five of his seven-year first term as president, Chirac was unable to 
pursue an Iraq policy of his own because he had to contend with a 
Socialist-Communist cabinet headed by his then political rival Lionel Jospin.

Since last April, however, Chirac, with his supporters in control of both the 
parliament and the cabinet, has assumed personal charge of the Iraqi issue by 
setting up a special "policy cell" within the Elysee Palace.
Chirac has dispatched a special emissary to Baghdad to sound out "the 
possibility of change without war."

The emissary is Pierre Delval, described by many as a brilliant young 
diplomat. 

He first went to Baghdad using as cover the post of director of the French 
state-owned National Printing Company, but has since been seconded to the 
Quai d'Orsay, the French foreign office.

The Delval mission is designed in a way as to allow him to spend ten days in 
Iraq each month, thus giving Paris a direct diplomatic presence in the 
absence of an ambassador.

According to sources Iraqi response to Delval has been "more than 
encouraging." 

This was symbolized by the fact that Saddam Hussein invited the French 
diplomat to attend a four-hour session of the Iraqi government last month 
when the latest threats from Washington were debated.

Delval's main Iraqi contact man is Tareq Aziz, the veteran Baathist leader 
who has been close to the French for years.

In recent months, however, Delval has also forged links with Qussai, Saddam 
Hussein's younger son. The two have met on at least six occasions and held 
"very broad discussions on all aspects of policy."

French sources believe that Qussai, unlike his elder brother Uday whom they 
describe as "unpredictable," could play a central role in a period of 
transition.

One idea is for Qussai to be appointed prime minister, a post now held by 
Saddam himself, so that he can form a cabinet of new generation and bring in 
new faces, mostly technocrats.

Another French idea is that the Baath party, now controlled by Uday, should 
be revived under a new leadership.

Delval has met several Baath leaders to evoke the possibility of a congress 
in which the Iraqi ruling party could "carry out major reforms of policy and 
personnel."

The French believe that the Baath remains a real political force in Iraq and 
should not be dismissed out of hand.

Paris sources claim that Saddam's decision to announce a general amnesty, 
including the release of all political prisoners, is a response to French 
suggestions.

Another French suggestion is that Saddam should announce an amnesty, perhaps 
next April, for Iraqis in exile, inviting them all to return home and help 
rebuild the country.

Another part of the plan is to hold fresh parliamentary elections, perhaps 
next autumn, so that a more credible legislature could be formed. The French 
want the new parliament to include members from the two principal Kurdish 
parties plus the Iraqi Communist party, and independents, especially women.

Unlike Washington that presents Iraq's leadership as a coterie of war 
criminals, Paris insists that the Iraqi ruling elite includes many "valuable 
individuals".

One senior French official even told us that Paris believed that Iraq had 
"potentially the most effective leadership group in the whole of the Arab 
world."

Apart from Qussai and Tareq Aziz, Iraqi officials who appear to be supporting 
the French initiative include the National Assembly Speaker Saadoun Hammadi, 
diplomatic advisor Nizar Hamdoun, Commerce Minister Muhamamd Mahdi-Saleh, 
head of the Central Bank Muhammad al-Hawwash, presidential adviser 
Abdulrazzaq al-Hashemi, Industry Minister Amer al-Rashid, and Foreign 
Minister Naji al-Sabri.

To these are added a number of technocrats, senior civil servants, university 
teachers, and private businessmen with links to France.

"We can change Iraq without war," says a French source. "All we need is time 
to show that our scenario works better than that of Washington."

What France is proposing in Iraq is already seen in Paris as "the Chirac 
Doctrine" which is aimed at persuading "trouble-making regimes" to accept 
peaceful change.

The question is: Will Washington stand back and watch while the Chirac 
doctrine is pout to its first major test? 

— Amir Taheri is editor of the French quarterly Politique Internationale and 
is reachable through www.benadorassociates.com.